As a fellow New Yorker, I had paid attention to Donald Trump for years, long before he got involved in politics.
When he ventured a comment about foreign policy, people scoffed at him. What did Trump know! National security was the exclusive domain of the experts, not real estate developers or reality TV stars.
But looking back, Trump was right about all the major foreign policy issues. It was the credentialed elites who got things wrong!
Here are Trump’s top six:
China
For decades, the consensus opinion was if the U.S. assisted China’s economic growth, it would become a friendly trading partner, and play by the rules – just like Japan, South Korea and the European nations. Trump disagreed. Experts laughed when he claimed China had ripped us off for decades. ‘China raided our factories, offshored our jobs, gutted our industries, stole our intellectual property, and violated their commitments under the World Trade Agreement.’
As recently as 2019, Joe Biden scoffed at the idea that China could overtake the U.S. as a world leader, telling a crowd in Iowa City, ‘China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man.’ The experts were wrong, Trump was right.
American Energy Dominance
Well before he ran for president in 2015, Trump realized recent advances in oil and gas production would be a strategic game changer for the U.S. and the world. When President Barack Obama left office, oil was at $120/barrel and experts warned the world was running out of oil.
Trump’s embrace of the U.S. energy industry increased American production and pushed oil down to $40/barrel. Not only did it spur extraordinary American economic growth, it also devastated the economies of Russia and Iran, because they needed oil prices above $90/barrel to fund their governments. When their energy export revenues fell by nearly two-thirds in the Trump years, Russia and Iran were forced to tighten their belts; they couldn’t afford costly wars.
Biden reversed Trump’s energy policies, and oil prices predictably rose back up to $100 per barrel. Iran used these windfall profits to fund its nuclear program and arm its proxies to attack Israel. Russia used its new-found wealth to attack Ukraine. There is a reason Russia invaded Ukraine during the Obama and Biden presidencies, but not during Trump’s. In the Trump years, they didn’t have the money to pay for expensive wars.
Iraq and Afghanistan Wars
Democrats and Republicans supported the Afghan and Iraq wars for 20 years. Trump disagreed. As early as 2003, he called the Iraq war ‘a mess.’ Turns out he was right. We shed American blood and spent trillions on two unwinnable, forever wars.
Iran
Trump pulled out of Obama’s flawed Iran nuclear deal, because it made Iran rich and didn’t stop its nuclear weapons program. He ordered the assassination of Gen. Qassam Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Forces. Instead of fruitless endless negotiations, Trump set out to bankrupt Iran with his energy policy and oil sanctions.
By the time Trump left office Iran was nearly bankrupt, and its proxy armies weakened. But President Biden threw Iran a lifeline. He reversed course on American energy production, paid Iran billions and refused to enforce sanctions. Iran used this $100 billion windfall to fund Hamas and Hezbollah in renewed proxy wars against Israel.
Abraham Accords
For decades, American leaders said we had to settle the Palestinian problem as the first step to a wider Arab-Israel peace. But time and again, the Palestinians refused to negotiate seriously, so peace proved elusive.
Trump took the opposite approach, and focused on Arab-Israeli peace as the first step. His energy policies lowered global oil prices. Arab leaders realized they could no longer count on oil export revenues alone to fund their government. They needed to diversify their economies, which required peace with Israel.
Trump also recognized that the younger generation of Arab leaders, schooled in the West and comfortable with more open societies, would be amenable to dramatic social change and to developing economic ties with Israel. The Abraham Accords were the first peace agreements between Israel and the Sunni Gulf states – ever. Trump succeeded where all the experts had failed for decades.
NATO
American presidents going back to John F. Kennedy complained that our NATO allies were not paying their fair share for our common defense. Obama called them ‘freeloaders.’ Our allies always made excuses, claiming they couldn’t afford to pay the 2% of GNP they had promised, and relied on America to foot the bill for their defense.
Trump hectored, scolded and threatened them until our NATO allies finally increased their defense spending. Turns out they DID have the money after all.
For years, Washington bureaucrats, politicians and experts have been wrong about the major foreign policy problems confronting the nation. It took an outsider who saw things from a different perspective. Instead of endless rounds of fruitless diplomacy and an open checkbook, Trump used a combination of trade, economics and common sense to reestablish American security. And his second term will be even better.