Since his first day in office, President Donald Trump has mismanaged negotiations over an end to the war in Ukraine. More than 100 days later, innocent Ukrainians are still dying while the president gets played by Russian President Vladimir Putin – illustrated starkly by the barrages of drones and missiles continually aimed at Ukrainian cities as Trump posts online.
It’s good to hear Trump finally express some frustration toward Putin and admit that his negotiating tactics aren’t working, that, as he says, Putin is ‘just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently.’ The reasons for this aren’t complicated. Instead of increasing his leverage over Russa, Trump offered concession after concession before talks even began.
Getting U.S. policy right in Ukraine matters. If we allow Russia to end these negotiations as the victor, our NATO allies in Poland and the Baltics could be next. China’s President Xi Jinping will draw clear lessons from our capitulation as China plots a takeover of Taiwan. And would-be aggressors the world over will see that the international order that — while imperfect — has created stability and prosperity in much of the world has ended.
Sadly, Trump is unlikely to listen to me, to our allies, or even to reasonable voices within his own White House and administration. My hope, though, is that he will be guided by the concepts from his own playbook — ‘The Art of the Deal’ — to secure a just peace and end this war.
Fight back
Donald Trump says never let yourself be pushed around — but that’s exactly what Putin is doing to him. When Trump proposed an unconditional ceasefire, Putin delayed and then shot a missile at a playground full of children. When Trump threatened additional sanctions if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire, Putin blew past Trump’s demands without consequence.
Instead of continuing to get pushed around, the president should heed his own words: ‘You do your thing, you hold your ground, you stand up tall, and whatever happens, happens.’ Backing down now by threatening to walk away from talks is incentivizing Putin. This weakness invites Russian and Chinese aggression because an easy deal today undermines security for Europe, Taiwan and the United States tomorrow.
Trump should increase sanctions — not just threaten them — and provide continued security assistance and intelligence sharing to Ukraine to sustain its war efforts against Russia. We should also reconsider Ukraine’s interest in NATO membership to apply all points of pressure on Putin.
Use your leverage
Russia’s economy is in real trouble with hundreds of thousands of Russians having been killed or wounded on the front lines. Putin needs this war to end. I couldn’t agree more with Trump when he wrote: ‘The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.’
Trump should not act as though Americans need this war to end more than the Russians do. While everyone wants to see an end to the bloodshed, America must approach these negotiations from a position of strength, so we can secure the best possible deal. Our economy and alliances dwarf those of Russia, which is poorer, more isolated and badly diminished by Putin’s war.
Trump should also not give away our leverage for nothing and that includes the economic might and political unity of our European partners. Presenting a united front means implementing punishing collective sanctions that have damaged Russia’s economy and thrown sand in its war gears. Acting together with our allies undermines Putin’s agenda in Europe, inflicts the greatest pain on Russia’s economy and significantly limits Russia’s negotiating space.
Deliver the goods
Deeds matter more than words. As Trump wrote himself: ‘If you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.’ He has deeply weakened decades of American leadership and credibility by abandoning our allies and the rules-based system that allowed for predictability, peace and prosperity for Americans and much of the world.
The only way to fix America’s credibility is to be decisive and show American strength. An immediate ceasefire allows Trump to deliver on his commitment to the American people and test Russia’s willingness to seek peace. But he should make clear that a stiffer sanctions package, including secondary sanctions outlined in Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Sen. Richard Blumenthal’s legislation, will be imposed imminently. More than 80 senators of both parties have endorsed this bill. He must convince Putin — through bold and decisive action — that continued war is folly. Only then will there be a durable peace that restores deterrence in Europe and allows Ukraine to rebuild.
Conclusion
Ukraine’s signing of the mineral deal with the U.S. is a promising step, in contrast to Putin’s recent no-show in Ankara. Trump can re-start peace efforts on his own terms by imposing a stiffer sanctions package on Russia without delay. If he is indeed committed to securing Ukraine’s independent future, Trump must demonstrate that he is in the stronger position.
But let me be clear: based on its history, the Kremlin is not interested in peace. Whether in Moldova, Georgia or Ukraine, Moscow has demonstrated strategic patience and abused others’ good faith to string out negotiations and then escalate when it sees fit. Simply put, when you give Putin an inch, he will take a mile. The only way to prevent this continued cycle is to secure a peace agreement that retains Ukraine’s national identity and that offers lasting security. Only then will President Trump prevent further aggression that threatens to draw America into future conflict.
We are in a critical stage of negotiations and whether we get it right or wrong will reverberate for decades.